Euro 2012 - Scenarios

Euro 2012 Scenarios

With the updated Fifa website allowing the public to enter recent results, establishing the current world rankings, I took on the complicated task of attempting to find out the possible seeding for the Euro 2012 group stages. The seeding itself is worked out on a numerical system, not entirely in cohesion with the FIFA rankings, the positions however remain the same. The system calculates each nations 'coefficient', which is based on recent results in major tournaments and their qualifying campaigns over the last 3 years. The points are distributed as so :

1. 10,000 points are awarded for each match played.
2. For the result of each match, the team will earn an additional 30,000 for winning and 10,000 for a draw.
3. In case of a game to be decided by penalty shoot out, the winner will gain an additional 10,000 points, beside of the points awarded for the drawn result.
4. Each match at the final tournament, or play-offs to determine qualification, are also granted some extra bonus points; ranging from 6,000 points for all play-offs or World Cup group stage games, to 38,000 points for playing a final.
5. Finally 501 points are earned for a goal scored, while 500 are lost for each goal conceded.

As Hosts, Poland and Ukraine automatically find themselves alongside Spain and Holland as Top Seeds for the initial stage. Both Spain and Holland should maintain their status as Europe’s elite and therefore consolidate their qualifying chances.

As I came to Pot Two, the mathematics became somewhat difficult. Germany lead the way in this group, with Italy, on the back of their 3-0 thumping of Northern Ireland, propping up second place, and 5^th in the Fifa World rankings. England find themselves third, scraping into Pot Two, however it is now that the rankings system becomes complicated. Portugal, who were 5^th in the World before their defeat to Denmark, fall to 9^th and as a result find themselves below Croatia, successful in the Play-Offs, could have found themselves in Pot Two, had it not been for Russia's impression results in recent years.

Moving down into Pot Three, Greece, level on ‘ranking points’ with Play-Off contenders Portugal, both lead the way, with Denmark just behind. Due to Portugal's qualification, Denmark fall into Pot Four, as Sweden finish the in Pot Three.
The remaining sides left, France, Republic of Ireland and the Czech's all find themselves alongside Denmark in Pot Four, and susceptible to drawing bigger teams come December 2nd.  

First Seeds – Poland, Ukraine, Spain, Holland                        

Second Seeds – Germany, Italy, England, Russia

Third Seeds – Greece, Sweden,Portugal, Croatia
Fourth Seeds – France, Republic of Ireland, Denmark, Czech Republic

Best case scenario

Poland
England
Greece
Czech Republic

Worst Case Scenario
Spain
England
Portugal
France